The Moa the Merrier: Resolving when the Dinornithiformes went extinct

Floe Foxon

doi:10.26496/bjz.2024.114

Authors

Floe Foxon Folk Zoology Society, PO Box 97014, Pittsburgh, PA 15229, USA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26496/bjz.2024.114

Keywords:

Moa, Dinornithiformes, extinction dynamics, folk zoology, cryptozoology

Abstract

The Moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes) are an extinct group of the ratite clade from New Zealand. The overkill hypothesis asserts that the first New Zealand settlers hunted the Moa to extinction by 1450 CE, whereas the staggered survival hypothesis allows for Moa survival until after Europeans began to arrive on New Zealand. Alleged Moa sightings post-1450 CE may shed light on these competing hypotheses. A dataset of 97 alleged Moa sightings from circa 1675 CE to 1993 CE was constructed, with sightings given subjective quality ratings corresponding to various statistical probabilities. Cumulative probabilities of Moa persistence were calculated with a conservative survival model using these probabilistic sighting-records; a method recently applied to sightings of the Thylacine. Cumulative persistence probability fell sharply after 1408 CE, and across pessimistic and optimistic variations of the model, it was more likely than not that the Moa were extinct by 1770 CE. Probabilistic sighting-record models favour the overkill hypothesis, and give very low probabilities of Moa persistence around the time of European arrival. Eyewitness data on Moa sightings are amenable to scientific study, and these methods may be applied to similar animals.

References

Allentoft M.E., Heller R., Oskam C.L., Lorenzen E.D., Hale M.L., Gilbert M.T.P., Jacomb C., Holdaway R.N. & Bunce M. (2014). Extinct New Zealand megafauna were not in decline before human colonization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111: 4922–4927. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1314972111

Armstrong P. (2010). Moa Citings. The Journal of Commonwealth Literature 45: 325–339. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021989410376799

Brathwaite D.H. (1992). Notes on the weight, flying ability, habitat, and prey of Haast’s Eagle (Harpagornis moorei). Notornis 39: 239–247.bAvailable from https://www.birdsnz.org.nz/publications/notes-on-the-weight-flying-ability-habitat-and-prey-of-haasts-eagle-harpagornis-moorei/ [accessed 9 January 2024].

Brook B.W., Buettel J.C. & Jarić I. (2019). A fast re-sampling method for using reliability ratings of sightings with extinction-date estimators. Ecology 100: e02787. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.2787

Brook B.W., Sleightholme S.R., Campbell C.R., Jarić I. & Buettel J.C. (2023). Resolving when (and where) the Thylacine went extinct. Science of The Total Environment 877: 162878. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162878

Diamond J. (2000). Blitzkrieg against the Moas. Science 287: 2170–2171. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5461.2170

Foxon F. (2023). What’s in Lake Champlain? Analysing historic sightings of the cryptid known as “Champ”. The Skeptic. Available from https://www.skeptic.org.uk/2023/06/whats-in-lake-champlain-analysing-historic-sightings-of-the-cryptid-known-as-champ/ [accessed 9 January 2024].

Foxon F. (2024). Bigfoot: If It’s There, Could It Be a Bear? Journal of Zoology. https://doi.org/10.1111/jzo.13148

Greenwell J.R. (1985). A classificatory system for cryptozoology. Cryptozoology 4: 1–14.

Heuvelmans B. (1982). What is cryptozoology? Cryptozoology 1: 1–12.

Heuvelmans B. (1984). The birth and early history of cryptozoology. Cryptozoology 3: 1–30.

Heuvelmans B. (1986). Annotated checklist of apparently unknown animals with which cryptozoology is concerned. Cryptozoology 5: 1–26.

Heuvelmans B. (1988). The sources and method of cryptozoological research. Cryptozoology 7: 1–21.

Holdaway R.N. (2023). Review of The Moa the Merrier. PCI Ecology. https://doi.org/10.24072/pci.ecology.100582

Holdaway R.N. & Jacomb C. (2000). Rapid extinction of the moas (Aves: Dinornithiformes): model, test, and implications. Science 287: 2250–2254. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5461.2250

Holdaway R.N., Allentoft M.E., Jacomb C., Oskam C.L., Beavan N.R. & Bunce M. (2014). An extremely low-density human population exterminated New Zealand moa. Nature Communications 5: 5436. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6436

Irwin G. & Walrond C. (2016). When was New Zealand first settled? Te Ara - the Encyclopedia of New Zealand. Available from http://www.TeAra.govt.nz/en/when-was-new-zealand-first-settled/ [accessed 9 January 2024].

Mackal R.P. (1983). Searching for Hidden Animals. Cadogan Books, London.

Nickell J. (2017). The New Zealand Moa: From Extinct Bird to Cryptid. Skeptical Inquirer. Available from https://skepticalinquirer.org/newsletter/the-new-zealand-moa-from-extinct-bird-to-cryptid/ [accessed 9 January 2024].

Paxton C.G.M. (2009). The plural of ‘anecdote’ can be ‘data’: statistical analysis of viewing distances in reports of unidentified large marine animals 1758–2000. Journal of Zoology 279: 381–387. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7998.2009.00630.x

Perry G.L., Wheeler A.B., Wood J.R. & Wilmshurst J.M. (2014). A high-precision chronology for the rapid extinction of New Zealand moa (Aves, Dinornithiformes). Quaternary Science Reviews 105: 126–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.025

Radford B. & Nickell J. (2006). Lake Monster Mysteries: Investigating the World’s Most Elusive Creatures. University Press of Kentucky, Lexington.

Sandom C., Faurby S., Sandel B. & Svenning J.C. (2014). Global late Quaternary megafauna extinctions linked to humans, not climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281: 20133254. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.3254

Silverberg R. (1973). The Dodo, the Auk and the Oryx: Vanished and Vanishing Creatures. Puffin Books, Harmondsworth.

Spittle B. (2010). Moa Sightings Volumes 1–3. Paua Press Limited, Dunedin.

Turvey S.T. & Holdaway R.N. (2005). Postnatal ontogeny, population structure, and extinction of the giant moa Dinornis. Journal of Morphology 265: 70–86. https://doi.org/10.1002/jmor.10341

Turvey S.T., Green O.R. & Holdaway R.N. (2005). Cortical growth marks reveal extended juvenile development in New Zealand moa. Nature 435: 940–943. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03635

Wehi P.M., Cox M.P., Roa T. & Whaanga H. (2018). Human perceptions of megafaunal extinction events revealed by linguistic analysis of indigenous oral traditions. Human Ecology 46: 461–470. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-018-0004-0

Wood J.R., Richardson S.J., McGlone M.S. & Wilmshurst J.M. (2020). The diets of moa (Aves: Dinornithiformes). New Zealand Journal of Ecology 44: 3397. https://doi.org/10.20417/nzjecol.44.3

Worthy T.H. & Holdaway R.N. (2002). The Lost World of the Moa: Prehistoric Life of New Zealand. Indiana University Press, Bloomington.